Discontinuity: Global Crop Die-Off
Increased monoculture plantings and over-hybridization could result in a worldwide food crisis by paving the way for diseases to decimate food crops.
Washington, DC (PRWEB) April 9, 2008
Two of the side effects of modern agricultural practices are the increasing reliance on a few varieties of a crop (monoculture) and increased hybridization of crops, explains Christopher Kent, an analyst at the DC-based futurist research and consulting firm Social Technologies.
"Protective traits are bred out in order to promote greater yields," he says, "and this leaves some plant varieties vulnerable to diseases that could potentially wipe out entire crops."
According to Kent, increased monoculture plantings and over-hybridization could result in a worldwide food crisis by radically reducing disease resistance in food crops. This is true, he believes, because any disease that strikes wheat, rice, or corn could result in a spike in global hunger as those three crops are responsible for 50% of global caloric intake.
"The potential disaster is suggested by current problems with banana crops," Kent says. "The majority of today's bananas are of the Cavendish variety, a hybrid that has no innate protection against the black sigatoka fungus that is threatening the global banana supply."
Furthermore, he notes that because they are so hybridized, modern bananas cannot produce sexually; new traits and varieties have to be bred through cuttings, a more difficult practice.
"Agricultural researchers are at a singular disadvantage in trying to fight this particular disease, as a banana variety that has a natural resistance to it survives only as a single plant, adding to the difficulty of breeding stronger bananas," Kent says.
Food crops are not the only agricultural sector threatened by monoculture. "Tree farming is also employing increased monoculture," Kent says. "As trees are harvested, they are usually being replaced by only one or two species, leading to an overall reduction in biodiversity."
The risk of a monoculture--or hybrid-related--die-off is rising, however, due to the continuing expansion of industrial agricultural practices, particularly to Worlds 2 and 3, as these regions adopt modern farming practices in an effort to boost agricultural output. Fortunately, efforts are underway to preserve seeds from vanishing varieties in order to increase their cultivation or aid recovery from a die-off.
"UN organizations such as the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research are working to expand gene banks of seed germ plasm to ensure that varietals and species do not die out completely," Kent assures.
Consumer impact
A global crop die-off could have local or global implications, depending on the severity. For example:
The food shortages that result from a massive crop die-off would most severely impact those who could not afford to pay the elevated prices that would follow. Concerns about plant diseases could lead to the establishment of government/ industry early-warning networks that monitor both the spread of plant disease and the health of varieties. Ironically, while genetic modification is a risk factor for crop die-offs, it is also one of the methods of creating new varieties--particularly for crops like bananas that have been overly hybridized. The use of GM techniques to create new species could help in fostering consumer acceptance of this technology.
Learn more
To talk to Christopher Kent about this discontinuity and its relevance to major business sectors, contact Hope Gibbs, Social Technologies' leader of corporate communications: hope. gibbs@socialtechnologies. com.
About The Discontinuities Series
Social Technologies recently released a series of briefs called Discontinuities, which are those sudden, sharp breaks that can strike consumers, business sectors, nations, or the world with disruptive force. Exactly when, where, or how such events will occur is inherently hard to foresee. This brief explores one potential discontinuity in the food sector. In the coming weeks, be on the lookout for more of our discontinuities press releases regarding the food, health, and mobility industries.
Christopher Kent Futurist
Christopher Kent is a writer/analyst with more than 10 years' experience tracking emerging public policy and social policy issues, primarily with Stratfor (Strategic Forecasting), a leading geopolitical-intelligence service. His expertise spans topics such as consumer and industry trends in the energy sector, the future of China, consumer lifestyles in Europe, and the impacts of microcredit in World 3. Christopher also oversees Social Technologies' internship program. He has an MA in the history of the Middle Ages and the Renaissance from the University of Toronto, and an undergraduate degree in history and English from Marquette University. Areas of expertise: Media and entertainment, tourism and leisure.
About Social Technologies
Social Technologies is a global research and consulting firm specializing in the integration of foresight, strategy, and innovation. With offices in Washington DC, London, and Shanghai, Social Technologies serves the world's leading companies, government agencies, and nonprofits. For information visit www. socialtechnologies. com, our blog: http://changewaves. socialtechnologies. com (http://changewaves. socialtechnologies. com), and our newsletter: www. socialtechnologies. com/changewaves (http://www. socialtechnologies. com/changewaves).
###
