AXXel's "Strong Buy" for the Nasdaq 100 as of 7/11/2002 is confirmed-
AXXel's Strong Buy recommendation of the Nasdaq 100 stocks has been confirmed. Here is AXXe;'s take on each of the 100 stocks in that index.
(PRWEB) August 14, 2002
August 9 th, 2002 Follow-Up [-updating the letter of 2/11/02]
Prices as of 8.8.02
The Nasdaq 100 stocks
The July 11th Strong Buy Signal for the Nasdaq 100 is confirmed
Using, AXXel Knutson's
VTAR™
["Volume Trade Analysis Research"™]
"Manage the riskÂ…the profits will take care of themselves"
"In this business, being right is not as important as making moneyÂ…consistently, and one of primary tenets of the quest is the avoidance of the 'obvious risk'"
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Nasdaq 100 Index courtesy of Clearstation. com
We started this series on February 11th, 2002 and here is what we said:
S & P 400 GoodÂ…NAZ badÂ…Got it?
NASDAQ IS NOT ITÂ…WHAT IS "IT" IS THE S & P 400 and 600Â…but here are the Nasdaq 100 because I know the cocaine-like addiction you have for these stocks.
Here is what we said on 2/11/02: "With the NASDAQ 100 at 1452.17, we can build only a short-term rally potential for this, our most hated indexÂ… We have been saying for a couple of years that money must be directed to small and mid-cap companies of high qualityÂ…that suggests the S & P Mid-Cap 400. Take a look at the two indices [are we now saying "indexes?"].
UPDATE 3.27.02: Well, here we are nearly seven weeks later and the NAS 100 is at 1439.55 vs. 1452.17 a loss of nearly 1% and the NAZ Composite which was at 1,772.15 is at 1817.06, hardly a sterling performance [plus 2%] particularly vs. our recommended index, the S & P 400 Mid Cap 400 which closed at 533.15. This index was at 495.56 an increase of 7-½%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, we only have 30 crummy stocks from which to choose, outperformed the NAS Comp and the NAS 100, up 721 points at 10,401 for the period, an increase of 7.4%. It didn't outperform our favorite S & P 400, but it came close, didn't it?
THIS IS A MEANINGFUL DIVERGENCE:
Now you may not think this is a meaningful divergence, but if you assume that these two indices are now not quite parallel lines, the divergence, if it continues as we think it shall, will be very meaningful 18 months out, 2 years out, 5 years out and that is the time frame that we think such an index will outperform the Nasdaq Composite [we mistyped "compost"] and perhaps that is an accurate description of the index. We shall see. We think this is VERY IMPORTANT information for you. We think you should plug it into your thinking. We have no pity for you if you ignore this development that we have been hounding you about for over two years.
. UPDATE July 11, 2002: This index is OVERSOLD. We may dislike itÂ…but there is money to be made here we think and that overrides bias.
And now the stocks of the NAZ 100Â…I hate most of these stocks, but I know you have this cocaine - like addiction to these god-awful names, so to wean you off the milk of these pathetic companies, here is my opinionÂ…feel free to go to the movies or hop on a bus to see where it finally ends up]. The government will likely give us some Intaxication: Euphoria at getting a tax refund, which lasts until you realize it was your money to start with.
UPDATE July 11, 2002: I still hate most of these stocks, but in spite of my general hatred of them, do appear massively oversold. And that we will buy. UPDATE August 8, 2002: no change.
UPDATE August 8, 2002: no change. And that has worked in spades. We continue to be bullish on the Nasdaq 100 stocks after 34 months of being negative. Going forward, this index is not the place to be long-term, but it is the place to be short-term and we continue to suggest that this market is "OVERSOLD" as we said on July 11th [our buy point]. See the Nasdaq 100 chart above. Although the index is below the July 11th level, most of the stock that we went positive on performed well and more are likely to do the same, thus the confirmation of the "strong buy" signal for the Nasdaq 100 stocks.
HERE ARE THE STOCKS [Our current comment in bold]
.
ABGX Abgenix, Inc. $ 23.12 not too badly mangled after 9/11 and actually went to new reaction highs to $38Â…but that was it and the stock just double bottomed at the sub $22 level. Traders could buy here for a move to $30, but this is high risk, moderate reward. But, hey, it's your money. Spotty revenues, losses-what else is new for a company like this? Abgenix, Inc. develops and intends to commercialize antibody therapeutic products for the treatment of a variety of disease conditions. [So they say]. Little debt. UPDATE 3.27.02: $ 19.12 and in line with most stocks in the index. Avoid. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $ 16.16 NO CHANGE. UPDATE July 11, 2002: $ 7.45 with the stock down 50% since our last warning and off 63% since our first warning we still see no evidence of a bottomÂ…check with us in mid 2003 on this one. Short term the stock has about 20-25% in the upside on the bounce. UPDATE August 8, 2002: $ 9.25. The short-term is working out and we see a REDUCTION in speculation. We will go to "buy."
ABGX Chart courtesy of Clearstation. com
ADCT ADC Telecommunications, Inc. $ 3.93 not really damaged by 9/11 but the damage was done already. Junky move to nearly six was it and now attempting a bottom. "Attempt" is the operative word. Avoid. ADCT offers network equipment, software & integration services for broadband, multi-service networks that deliver Internet/data, video & voice communications over telephone, cable TV, Internet, broadcast, wireless and enterprise networks. UPDATE 3.27.02: $3.82 probably some minor bottomÂ…we don't care. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $3.60 NO CHANGEÂ…we STILL don't careÂ…we may never care. UPDATE July 11, 2002: $ 2.05 in the tank to the tune of 45% since our first report which was negative we still are negative although with little obvious debt there is the potential of accumulation and the stock did react well to the recent rally from sub two bucks. We will now rate only neutral/negative and a move to just under $3.50 is likely. UPDATE August 8, 2002: $1.63 the only news is cost reductions, cost reductions. Could move a little. Who cares?
ADLAC Adelphia Communications Corporation $ 23 + one could make a case for a triple bottom hereÂ…an initial break of $20 post 9/11, another stab at a break in November and a nice run to $32 plus only to see us back at current numbers. Event risk and the events are likely negative. Excessive risk. UPDATE 3.27.02: $ 20.50 a likely short-term bottom at sub $20 in mid Feb and another just here. Traders can look for the mid 20's. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $7.00 see why we hate this indexÂ…see what we mean by "event risk?' I'm sure you do. UPDATE July 11, 2002: $ GONE = "Hole in a donut." Do say we didn't tell you. UPDATE August 8, 2002: $ 0.00. Holes in a donut tend to stay that way. What they should do with these scum that use corporate monies to massively inflate their lifestyles is to set them free, give them a stipend of $100/week and force them to live on itÂ…no welfare, no assets, no gifts, no house, no jobÂ…a hundred bucks a weekÂ…that's it. I'll even pay for it.
ADBE Adobe Systems Incorporated $ 35.80. Buy. This is a positive exception in the techs. Nice crash in September and we are still not back to pre-Sept numbers. Therein lies some safety. We like the fact that earnings are still pretty solid in the face of declining revs and their labor content numbers are attractive to our VTAR™ © 1992-2002 analysis. UPDATE 3.27.02: $38.40 no change-still constructive. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $39.04 and a buy…see how smart your Aunt Edna is? UPDATE July 11, 2002: $ 24.75 and a negative change mid report shows the danger in attempting to go with a positive rating in a negative overall group. We will stay the course here and I do believe you will see an attack on the mid 30's UPDATE August 8, 2002: $17.41 not enough panic in terms of volume yet…sell rallies.
ALTR Altera Corporation $ 23.45 murdered in the 9-11 hit and has barely recovered. Spotty, spotty performance in a crummy group. It does have cash so we can suggest that the downward spike in September will likely hold and the minor break of $20 in December was largely tax-selling idiotic who after their likely purchase at $65 in August of 2000, finally thought "now" was the time to panic and sell. Traders could buy, but you are buying knowing that event risk is likely negative. UPDATE 3.27.02: $21.64 no change but a slight improvement in the VTAR™ numbers. Still, rather neutral positive only. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $21.47 and upgrade a notch to positive. UPDATE July 11, 2002: $12.83 along with other semis, this had no chance. Use the rally to exit near $18. UPDATE August 8, 2002: $11.23 a wonderful exit for sure and we are too close to a break of ten to interest us on the buy side. No change-negative.
AMZN Amazon. com, Inc. $ 12.52 reported nice numbers [well, nice for Amazon, that is] and the stock does appear bound for the mid 20's according to VTAR™ numbers. That's OK with us and you've taken bigger risks haven't YOU? Here is the news from Dow Jones: Jan 22, 2002- "Amazon. com Inc. turned a profit for the first time in the fourth on sales that topped the billion dollar mark, another first for the nearly seven-year-old Internet retailing giant. Amazon on Tuesday reported net income of $5.1 million, or a penny a share, compared with a net loss of $545.1 million, or $1.53 a share, a year earlier. Sales rose 15% to $1.12 billion from $972 million." There's more…blah, blah, blah. UPDATE 3.27.02: $14.23 no change, positive, but not low risk. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $14.96 still positive and traders can buy here. UPDATE July 11, 2002: $14.55 holding in there for sure and a nice move to $20 mid report. We will stay positive and watch for the low twenties. UPDATE August 8, 2002: $13.37 speculative selling here…no change.
AMGN Amgen Inc. $ 57.90. We don't have to have an opinion on every issue
And AMGN just bores us to death-I would rather watch two fleas mating. UPDATE 3.27.02: $61.14 no change, still bored to death. UPDATE 4.15.2002: 57.21 market performer if that. UPDATE July 11, 2002: $32.85 off 40% since our comment on 4.15 and increasing risk is now in this stock with a bottom not apparent in the 30's. Expect a powerful bounce to the May, 2002 level and that takes us to the low 40's. UPDATE August 8, 2002: $47.14 and we are at the target but we see speculation diminished. Average up.
AMGN Chart courtesy of Clearstation. com
ADRX Andrx Group $ 49 techies are heading for the hills on this issue, but the break of $50 from the shelf of $50 is pretty severe in its own right-also there was some panic volume [we like that]. Andrx Corporation formulates and commercializes controlled-release
Oral pharmaceuticals using the Company's proprietary drug delivery technologies. For the 9 months ended 9/30/01, revenues rose 47% to $552.4M. Net income applicable to Andrx Group rose 40% to $68.6M. Revenues reflect sales of the Company's distribution of the bioequivalent version of Ventolin. Too newsy for us relative the FDA, but recent crash patterns push us to the attractive side. UPDATE 3.27.02: $39.10 we are not there yet. We would like to see some follow-through negative volumeÂ…so we will wait until we do. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $37.78 we have double breaks sub $40 and that is a 50% off sale from January. That could be enough. Neutral. UPDATE July 11, 2002: $ 20.47 it was not enough but the selling is becoming quite speculative. From here if we see a break of $20, we would buy for a trade. UPDATE August 8, 2002: $21.06 and now more than just a trade, now a "buy."
APOL Apollo Group, Inc. $ 31.30. We rate as positive. Apollo Group is a provider of higher education programs for working adults. APOL offers its services at 58 campuses and 102 learning centers. For the 3 months ended 11/30/01, revenues rose 29% to $228.2M. Net income rose 30% to $31.7M. UPDATE 3.27.02: $51.85 and still very positive. Buy. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $ 37.36 we really cooking here and we are not even close to a top according to our VTAR™ work. Average up. UPDATE July 11, 2002: $37.45 3:2 stock split on 4/25/02 all prices adjusted for that split. To find the positive exception in a very negative index is an accomplishment and here it is. Buy. UPDATE August 8, 2002: $37.85 and we are pressing the top of the trading range and it is very positive indeed. Average up. Here is the recent news:
-June 25, 2002--Apollo Group Inc. today reported financial results for Apollo Education
Group (Nasdaq: APOL - News) and University of Phoenix Online (Nasdaq: UOPX - News) for the third quarter of fiscal 2002 ended May 31, 2002.
Net income attributed to Apollo Education Group for the three months ended May 31, 2002, was $48.4 million, or $.27 per diluted share, compared to $34.2 million, or $.20 per diluted share, reported for the same period last year.
Net income attributed to University of Phoenix Online for the three months ended May 31, 2002, was $2.4 million, or $.16 per diluted share, compared to $1.2 million or $.09 per diluted share, reported for the same period last year.
Net income attributed to Apollo Education Group for the nine months ended May 31, 2002, was $106.6 million, or $.61 per diluted share, compared to $74.4 million, or $.43 per diluted share, reported for the same period last year.
Net income attributed to University of Phoenix Online for the nine months ended May 31, 2002, was $5.3 million, or $.35 per diluted share, compared to $2.2 million or $.16 per diluted share, reported for the same period last year.
AAPL Apple Computer, Inc. $ 24.03. We don't think you will get rich with this box manufacturer, but we don't think you will go to the poorhouse either. It is the only box mfr with any real creativity. Earnings came in on target and AAPL is expecting an increase to $1.5 bil in revs for the 2nd quarter. Well, a quarter will also get you a hole in a donut. The stock is "OK" but we do not get involved with stocks that are OK. Oklahoma is OK. UPDATE 3.27.02: $23.50 acting OK, but just OK is still not good enuf. [and that is how we spell "enuf." And that should be enough 4 U]. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $ 25.06 sneaking up and that is what it is supposed to do. Still positiveÂ…the ONLY box manufacturer we like and if Apple does not like the name box makerÂ…wellÂ…what do you think? UPDATE July 11, 2002: $17.63 well dude, not only are you not getting a Dell, you are not getting an Apple either. The break of $20 was not speculative and only the further break to sub $17 slightly less soÂ… have to go with the mid newsletter change to negative but short-term we can expect a move to the $22 levelÂ…we will re-evaluate then. UPDATE August 8, 2002: $15.05 no changeÂ…the stock needs a good flushing to go to the buy side and we are not there.
AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. $ 21.53 the stock is back to the pre Sept 11 numbers [almost] but that is about it. Neutral and we don't like "neutral." It's not worth your hard-earned cash. UPDATE 3.27.02: $25.87 a nice step correction. Now neutral positive and a trading buy on a break of $50. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $ 25.30 you got the break of $50 so let's see where she goes. UPDATE July 11, 2002: $16.67 On 4.16.2002 this stock split. Why is anyone's guess because it will likely split itself given time? All price adjusted for the 2:1 split. Well, she went down if you want to know where it went and since there is no panic sub $20 we are not inclined to hold out much hope for this stock. Still, there has been enuf short-term panic and we can see the stock back to the low 20's. UPDATE August 8, 2002: $13.52 let's reverse course here - sell $16.
AMCC Applied Micro Circuits Corporation $ 9.80 horror story of horror stories, this stock did manage to rally in Oct and Nov-but here we are sub ten again. Still, sub ten is usually a place to acquire for trades so go ahead if YOU want. We will not. UPDATE 3.27.02: $7.79 no panic selling yet but some nice beginnings of that panic. Traders could buy the margin selling should the stock crack $5. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $ 7.12 no change but getting closer. UPDATE July 11, 2002: $4.09 there was no panic sub $5.00. No change and off over 50% since our first warning but the stock is oversold short term and we can see the stock attempt seven and that is a decent percentage in anyone's book or anyone's pamphlet for that matter. UPDATE August 8, 2002: $
ATML Atmel Corporation $ 7.13 another memory chip co in the skidsÂ…it has a base of sorts. So, at current numbers we give it a slight positive ratingÂ…but we have other fish to fry. UPDATE 3.27.02: $9.92 and a nice move for sure. Traders may now buy the break of nine. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $ 9.75 and YOU GOT THE BREAK OF NINEÂ…now we are looking for double digits aren't we? Of course, we are. UPDATE July 11, 2002: $ 4.72 didn't happen and that is not unique in NAZ 100 stocks. Neutral and now to see that attack on $7.50. UPDATE August 8, 2002: $2.96 probable very weak rally, but we are not buying.
BEAS BEA Systems, Inc. $ 16.25 this is the base and traders may enter here. The key would be to dribble to the $22 level and then punchÂ…if it punches right away, get rid of it. UPDATE 3.27.02: $13.56 real lack of potential. Avoid. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $12.06 ready for a bounce upÂ…let it bounce without you. UPDATE July 11, 2002: $7.66 it "bounced and crashed" and here at nine we do not see the potential. Neutral and a break of $8 will likely set up the oversold rally to about ten. UPDATE August 8, 2002: $5.38 we have the break of eight on schedule, but we are not satisfied yetÂ…probably a failing rallyÂ…next potential buy point is a break of five.
BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. $ 33.72 overpriced stuff we can all do without-gold-plated toilet plungers, refrig magnets, scales so slippery you can kill yourself on, etc. but someone is buying this junk. Revenues are surely there, earnings as well but margins are shrinkingÂ…I mean after three gold-plated toilet plungers per household the price REALLY has to be something to get me to buy the fourth. The real buy was when the market gave us its buy signal on September 20thÂ…then BBBY was sub $20Â…but at current numbers it is a yawn. UPDATE 3.27.02: $32.97 enuf of a base for a move so now neutral positive. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $34.74 and now for an attack on the low 40's. That is where it is likely goingÂ…but we have bigger fish to fryÂ…or is that we have better bison to biteÂ…well, you get it. UPDATE July 11, 2002: $32.65 to buyÂ…NAZ 100 or not, BBBY looks like a $50 number from here. Sell those gold plated toilet plungers we all need. 6.20.02 earnings release: " reported net earnings of $46.3 million ($.15 per share) in the fiscal first quarter ended June 1, 2002, an increase of approximately 54.3% from the $30.0 million ($.10 per share) earned in the fiscal first quarter of 2001. Net sales for the fiscal first quarter of 2002 were $776.8 million, an increase of approximately 34.9% from net sales of $575.8 million in the fiscal first quarter of 2001. Comparable store sales of the Bed Bath & Beyond stores in the fiscal first quarter of 2002 grew by approximately 13.2%, compared with an increase of approximately 4.4% in last year's fiscal first quarter."
UPDATE August 8, 2002: $28.50 with institutions selling anything they have that has a profit BBBY took a hit and it is not over yet. Gone.
BGEN Biogen, Inc. $ 53.68 pretty boring, but it has been pretty boring since April Fool's Day of 2000. We see nothing to change that. Maybe April Fool's Day 2003Â…. check back. UPDATE 3.27.02: $49.93 not even close. Negative. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $45.32 no change, still icky. UPDATE July 11, 2002: $30.65 we like the up-move and the immediate retracement and market break crunch to the low 30's. Buy. UPDATE August 8, 2002: $35.70 average up as speculation is diminishingÂ…to strong buy.
BGEN Chart courtesy of Clearstation. com
BMET Biomet, Inc. $ 32.37 looks as if it could break out toward $40, but somehow we think you should avoid. UPDATE 3.27.02: $26.52 a very worthwhile "avoid" for sure. Traders could buy another severe break sub $25. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $26.16 you got your break of $25 and look for the exit door about 29 ½. UPDATE July 11, 2002: $24.55 well, that worked with a high about $30 and we could try it again so we will. Buy. UPDATE August 8, 2002: $27.65 that worked well too…average up but sell if volume becomes excessive at $30. Man who run behind car get exhausted.
BRCM Broadcom Corporation $ 39.20 there was no real damage to this star performer of the dot. Com blastÂ…but it is stuck in a range with this being near the bottom. UPDATE 3.27.02: $35.13 it keeps acting like a bottomÂ…but our guess it isn't. Avoid and look for a break into the twenties and below $25. We are not expecting the teens. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $ 34.15 it did not want to break $30Â…well, until it does, we have NO INTEREST. My price or NO price. UPDATE July 11, 2002: $17.65 in May it broke $30 and with some conviction and here we are under $20 and no panic? But the market laid a big enough egg, so now we can buy for a trade UPDATE August 8, 2002: $17.37 not much of a trade yet, so let's exit in favor of others we like better.
BRCD Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. $ 32.63 the benefit of the doubt short-term…than gives us an objective of $38 ½. Not worth it. UPDATE 3.27.02: $25.73 and it was not worth it. No change…negative. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $24.65 no change. UPDATE July 11, 2002: $16.45 a panic buy at the sub $15 level. We wanted panic and we got it with the crash to sub $15. Now? Buy. UPDATE August 8, 2002: $16.69 no change but not so encouraging either.
CDWC CDW Computer Centers, Inc $ 53.87 stuck in a trading range and it is likely to be resolved to the upsideÂ…but not just yet. Neutral/Positive only. UPDATE 3.27.02: $48.58 now only neutral. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $49.41 about as neutral as it gets. UPDATE July 11, 2002: $45.91 and neutral it is which for NAZ 100 that is quite the compliment. Now "buy." UPDATE August 8, 2002: $45.69 the sidelines pleaseÂ
CEPH Cephalon, Inc. $ 57.68 a biopharmaceutical company that develops and markets products to treat neurological and sleep disorders, cancer and pain. Revs are there but that was the news for the market to throw it over the side at $77Â…now we have a minor rally in placeÂ…only neutral. UPDATE 3.27.02: $64.36 no change. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $63.50 no change and no interest. UPDATE July 11, 2002: $37.15 and a wonderful stock and again enuf to the downside for us to go to "Buy." UPDATE August 8, 2002: $45.63 that is working just duckyÂ…average up looking to the low 50's shall we? Ever wonder why drugstores
Make the sick walk all the way to the back of the store to get their prescriptions while healthy people can buy cigarettes at the front? I haven't.
CHTR Charter Communications, Inc. $ 11.25 low enuf if you have any feel for the fundamentals…we don't…a rally to about 13 ½. Not 4 us. UPDATE 3.27.02: $11.99 blah rally. Avoid. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $9.04 but now it is getting interesting…we have a crack of an important number but no panic…OK break five for the panic and buy that panic. UPDATE July 11, 2002: $3.47. The buy of five got you nothing. Neutral. UPDATE August 8, 2002: $2.57 no change.
CHKP Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. $ 33.77 not damaged by 9/11 and the rally took the stock up by 100%…not bad. But then the "heart-attack" mode and we are back in the base. If you were nimble, you made money…if not…well, you know. Avoid the temptation to trade this name. UPDATE 3.27.02: $31.60 it looks like a base…it smells like a base. Is it a base? No. Avoid UPDATE 4.15.2002: $20.72 selling is excessive but do we really care? UPDATE July 11, 2002: $12.65 and a base it certainly was not. There was a panic "buy" when the stock hit sub $11.00 but we are not looking for panic "buys," we are looking for panic sells. What a great stock to have hated. But the stock did give up most of the gain, short-term, Buy. UPDATE August 8, 2002: $16.32 although not diminished speculation according to VTAR™ it is not excessive either. Average up lightly.
CHIR Chiron Corporation $ 41.19 back in the base, but we still don't care. There is not enuf of a break to motivate us. I like "enuf." UPDATE 3.27.02: $45.94 no change. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $45.66 neutral positive but not much in it. UPDATE July 11, 2002: $27.45 is this "enuf?" Maybe, so traders can buy. UPDATE August 8, 2002: $36.35 and we are cooking for sure. Average up.
CIEN CIENA Corporation $ 9.46 single digit objective reachedÂ…we still don't want it. CIEN manufactures and sells open architecture, DWDM systems for fiberoptic communications networks, optical networking solutions and access systems Not exactly high demand products at the moment. UPDATE 3.27.02: $8.23 no change, but if there was a high volume break of $5.00, we would look at it. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $7.55 if you put an EKG on this stock what would you think? UPDATE July 11, 2002: $4.81panic buyers and short covering below $4.00. Buy. UPDATE August 8, 2002: $4.10 not exciting, but not a loss either and a nice move to over $6.00 in the meantime. Average up.
CTAS Cintas Corporation $ 49.71 now here is a company we can understand. Everything looks on stream, but we give it only a positive rating. Again, we can do better. Cintas Corporation designs, manufactures, and implements corporate identity uniform programs which it rents or sells to customers throughout the U. S. and Canada. For the 6 months ended 11/30/01, total revenues increased 6% to $1.12B. Net income increased 7% to $114.5M. Revenues reflect higher rental income due to growth in customers base. Earnings also reflect improved gross profit margins, lower interest rates and a
Reduction in long-term debt. UPDATE 3.27.02: $48.65 now only neutral. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $50.00 and now positive. UPDATE July 11, 2002: $44.95 you got a move to $56+ but that was it. Now to "buy" and a target of $53. UPDATE August 8, 2002: $41.70 rather icky performance with only a move to $45+ - we will exit and look to see if a break of $40 interests us.
CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. $ 16.76 not murdered in the 9/11 crunch but a decent enuf rally to $21Â…but that was it and to go along with Chambers view of the future is really to believe in fairies, but that's San Jose for ya. UPDATE 3.27.02: $16.34 this would be the place to stage a rallyÂ…but we just don't care. UPDATE 4.15.2002: $15.02Â…let's do a little history and see if there are any changesÂ…we take you back to a dark, dank timeÂ…a time when analysts thought they were doing their job by hanging out at corporate campus' looking for "guidanceÂ
Here is what WE thought November 8, 2000:
"DJS Cisco Shares Slide as Investors Fret Over Winstar Financing Deal
By Peter Loftus
Dow Jones Newswires
NEW YORK -- Cisco Systems Inc. shares fell Wednesday after First Allied
Securities issued a "sell" investment rating on Cisco, saying the networking-equipment giant was too optimistic about future growth rates.
Investors were also concerned about a new vendor financing deal that Cisco signed with telecommunications company Winstar Communications Inc. (WCII), under which Winstar will receive funding to purchase equipment from Cisco.
Shares of Cisco (CSCO) were down $4.06, or 7.2%, at $52.69 in afternoon trading Wednesday on the Nasdaq Stock Market.
Axxel Knutson, a First Allied broker, said he issued the "sell" rating on Cisco because the company was "extraordinarily optimistic" in its outlook after reporting better-than-expected first-quarter results late Monday. Cisco executives said they expect fiscal 2001 revenue to rise 50% to 60% from fiscal 2000 levels, and they analysts to boost earnings estimates.
But Mr. Knutson believes the stock could fall about 50% from current levels in the next six to nine months. Mr. Knutson said Cisco is vulnerable to a slowdown in capital spending by its telecom customers. Moreover, Cisco has some vulnerability across its product lines, he added. "The extent of Cisco's improvement is going to be measurably disappointing," Mr. Knutson said.
Cisco officials couldn't immediately be reached for comment. Winstar, a New York-based competitive local exchange carrier, or CLEC,
Said Wednesday it secured a total of $1.02 billion in financing agreements in the form of equity, vendor financing and the expansion of a credit facility. Cisco is one of several compani
